Aw, shucks. You think I'm dumb because I've got a West Virginia accent. How elitist of you.
I was thinking about pitching stats the other day – WHIP specifically. That’s Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched. It’s a pretty good stat. It tells you how many players a guy allows on base on average. Plus, it gives you a really easy benchmark – under 1.00 is really good and over 2.00 is terrible. Still, I got to thinking that a pitcher could give up a ton of singles – or walks – and not give up a lot of runs. Basically, if a pitcher is more inclined to give up a single than a big hit then their WHIP is probably going to be a bit higher while still being successful. So I figured Total Bases + Walks + Hit Batsmen / IP might be much better than WHIP. It rewards pitchers who don’t give up bigger hits by taking into account total bases. But wouldn’t that just be inferior to saying Slugging Percentage against?
I guess the reasoning behind WHIP is that the number of batters who reach base matters because additional base runners drive the others home. Is there any way to quantify “big innings” then? I’m sure there is, but again I don’t know how to do that. The number of hits given up probably bunches up around innings at a consistent pattern for everyone anyway. I wonder though if some pitchers have a better ability to string out hits than others. For example, everybody’s raving about CC Sabathia’s and Roy Halladay’s performances in the ALCS and NLCS – overall, not great counting games, but their teams won. Not sure. My rational mind says believe the statistics. The part of my brain that makes me wear my Braves hat whenever they need to win (unless they’re losing and I’ve been wearing it for a week) says shutup and go with your gut.
I’ll be honest though. Right now I just want to prove stat heads wrong. Yes, I understand the hypocrisy of trying to prove stats wrong with stats, but you haven’t thought about this as hard as I have. Keep reading. I like Rob Neyer’s writing and analysis – if not his style and attitude, especially towards the player’s association. His blogs on manager’s moves over the course of this postseason, however, have grown irritating*. Maybe it’s because he’s one of the only writers I read consistently, but bringing up obscure splits and stats in criticizing a manager’s decision to either leave a pitcher in or pinch hit wouldn’t hold water during most in-game experiences. Charlie Manuel and Ron Washington don’t have a computer on hand during a game. If they did, they wouldn’t be managing the team. You can plan and memorize and spend all day drawing up plays or working out every eventuality, but ultimately a manager manages people and that’s a huge part of their job.
*To be fair, he acknowledges he’s being irritating and usually tries to acknowledge and understand the opposing viewpoint. I obviously like him or I wouldn’t continue to read his columns. Still, he’s no Joe Pos, one of my favorite writers of any kind.
He's cooler than you, and he's also lead more teams to the World Series.
A manager who’s checking stats isn’t experiencing the game or interacting with his players. If you’re looking at a sheet or calling your stats guy who’s looking at a computer you’re not managing a baseball game; you’re an NFL coach. That’s what’s beautiful about baseball – not the numbers or analysis but the feeling of being at a ballpark and watching guys playing a game. Football is a spectacle with dozens of coaches and many players who, I’m sure, the head coach hardly even knows. Baseball has a more even pace. It’s not frantic. It has ten times more games than the NFL. I went to my first NFL game this weekend, which I enjoyed*. Compared to a baseball game it felt like the Home Depot to MLB’s neighborhood hardware store.
*Kind of. It was actually painful to watch – Bears/Redskins. By the way – how horrible is the team name “Redskins”? It’s gotta be up there with the Indians’ Chief Wahoo as the most racist major sports team out there.
There’s no way anyone could memorize every split and statistic needed for every matchup. You could probably create printouts, but the management of the team would suffer. I defer to the manager. They know where their players are. If somebody’s slightly ailing, their swing is off or they’ve got postseason jitters then it affects how they will perform. They’re making quick decisions. Knowing stats is good, but knowing your players is better.
*Unless it’s that racist ass-hole Tony LaRussa.
Peanut Shells 